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Exponential growth

The exponential function maps the real line (from minus infinity to plus infinity) to the range zero to plus infinity in a monotonically increasing manner. It is normally encountered in modelling in the form of exponential decay to a finite number. Exponential growth, going to infinity, requires infinite resource or it comes to a sudden halt having used all available resources.

The popularity of exponential growth seems to be due to the ease with which anyone can draw a straight line on a log-plot. This is particularly dangerous when they extrapolate the curve as happened during the years of Covid-19 never minding 180 years of prior art to the contrary. People also incorrectly state it is happening when there has, instead, been an order of magnitude increase.

Logplot of the exponential function

Exponential growth is usually debunked by pointing out that the variable in question is finite so a limit cannot be exceeded. Reductio ad absurdum. A more subtle argument is to ask what happens and when to cause a finite variable to leave a curve to infinity? The resulting silence then allows appeal to Occam's razor. i.e. It was never growing exponentially in the first case.

Other curves grow to infinity. e.g. The hyperbola which has the same etymological root as hyperbole but goes to infinity in finite time rather than the infinite time of the much slower exponential growth.

History

2000 BC Babylonians? Compound Interest
1000 AD Persians or Indians? Grains of wheat on a chessboard
1798 AD Malthus Exponential population growth
1840 AD Farr Farr's Law
1859 AD Darwin Debunking of Malthus
1910 AD Lotka & Volterra Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model
1945 AD Manhattan Project Trinity Test
1949 AD Californians Pyramid schemes
1963 AD Mandlebrot Cotton prices
1973 AD Black, Scholes & Merton Black-Scholes
2024 AD Mason Minimal SIR model