Stoch Answers Papers Up

An incomplete history of Mathematical and Statistical modelling

Note that these pages are a work in process and will be updated on an ad hoc basis.

Statistical models are different because they don't have to obey the laws of Maths. The classic example is when someone draws a straight line on a log plot and declares exponential growth. Since the exponential function goes all the way to infinity if the variable is finite then some Mathematical trick has to be invoked. That trick may then break some law of nature or be invalidated by Occam's razor.

Themes

Celestial mechanics, Epidemiology, Exponential, Finance, Normal distribution

History

2000 BC Babylonians? Compound Interest
170 AD Ptolemy Geocentric model
1514 AD Copernicus Heliocentric theory
1609 AD Kepler Laws of planetary motion
1684 AD Newton Theory of gravitation
1823 AD Gauss Theory of errors
1840 AD Farr Farr's Law
1900 AD Bachelier Brownian Motion
1917 AD Ross & Hudson Compartmental models
1927 AD Kermack & McKendrick Standard SIR model
1963 AD Mandlebrot Cotton prices
1973 AD Black, Scholes & Merton Black-Scholes
2024 AD Mason Minimal SIR model